By Susan Smith Nash, Ph.D.
From 2002 until 2007, more than 4,000 institutions of higher education of all types, public/private/non-profit/ for-profit responded to surveys from the Sloan Consortium, which were published in the Sloan online learning reports (Sloan-C, Online Nation, 2007). The questionnaires inquired about the nature of their online enrollment and programs. In addition, the institutions described the level to which they were engaged in online courses and programs, and their expectations of future demand and growth.
In 2006, more than half the institutions surveyed described themselves as either "fully engaged" or "engaged" with a strategic purpose for their online courses and programs. An overwhelming percentage expected teh demand for online learning to grow.
The results were very significant, and they have a number of implications for currently enrolled and future elearners. Many of the findings are unexpected.
- 1. Growth of online courses and programs has been extraordinary. The institutions with the highest levels of growth (often doubled the number of offerings within the five-year survey period), were the ones with the highest level of commitment.
- 2. A large number of institutions claim that online is a part of their long-term strategy.
- 3. Online enrollments will reach a steady state when institutions that believe that having online programs is a part of their overall strategy have stopped their expansion efforts and have stopped adding courses and programs (p. 15).
- 4. The institutions that do not consider online programs to be a part of their overall strategy do not have a significant impact on the number of online enrollments.
Possible conclusions that one can make, but which were not a part of the report:
- 1. Institutions that expect demand to continue to grw will not worry too much about a potentially negative impact of tuition increases. In fact, the market price will tend to increase as demand surges, since there will still be a high number of students who are seeking high-quality online programs.
- 2. Engaged institutions will see the future as possessing:
- a. rapid growth in enrollments
- b. faster growth of programs with low barriers of entry and with popular programs (Criminal Justice, Public Administration, General Studies, MBA, Allied Health, etc.)
- c. higher competition as supply will start to outstrip demand
- 3. Textbook driven course development: modules will lead to quick development, but institutions will have difficulty with brand differentiation
- 4. Standardization of text and outcomes assessment in order to satisfy accreditation agencies and State department of education
- 5. How institutions differentiate themselves will change.
Problems with growth:
- 1. Students not prepared - do not know how to succeed in college;
- 2. Need more development courses and also placement exams and support. What kind of support? Will it really work? Colleges and universities will be under pressure to makes sure.
- 3. Tuition madness - two pronged attack: cost-push and demand-pull.
- 4. Instructional materials must evolve to meet needs of students
- * text with interactive and Web-based quizzes and resources
- * downloadable audio that ties to text and learning objectives/outcomes
- * video clips for key points
- * mobile (download practice tests - any place + any time)
- 5. Financing must evolve to allow more students to afford college. And, more internships, job placement, and virtual employment should be involved.
Recommended earlier posts on related topics: