Earlier this month, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released its list of 30 occupations with the “largest projected employment growth” through 2020.  Not surprising for anyone who follows employment news and career buzz, nurses topped the list.  Today, The Atlantic offered this unequivocal advice to students and jobseekers:

“If you're looking for guaranteed employment during the next eight years, become a nurse. Really. It's that simple.”

But if you talk to nurses and nursing students in your neighborhood, you may find out it’s hardly that simple.  The reality of the so-called nursing shortage is actually sort of complicated.  Here’s why (at least in part):

  • Many hospitals downsized their nursing rosters to cut costs during the Great Recession, and have yet to “right size” staffing needs.

Collectively speaking, the nursing workforce is nearing the age for retirement.  National surveys indicate that the average age of America’s RNs is around 47.  This should be the time when facilities are ramping up hiring efforts and replacing inevitable retirees.  But thanks to the economic downturn – including cutbacks to Medicaid and Medicare – some healthcare employers are reluctant to extend job offers.  Moreover, many veteran nurses are delaying retirement to counterbalance personal economic hardships.   So while a nursing shortage still looms on the horizon, it may not seem apparent today.

  • Some healthcare facilities are reluctant to hire new graduates with no professional experience.

According to a survey cited by the American Society of Registered Nurses (ASRN), 93 percent of newly licensed, unemployed RNs in California blamed their failed job searches on lack of experience.  And the ASRN validates their conclusion by noting the return of so many experienced RNs into the workforce.

The takeaway for prospective nursing students is a toned down version of all the rally cries.  Yes, nursing positions should grow dramatically in the coming years.  But no, you can’t be guaranteed a paycheck just for showing up at all those BSN practicum – at least not this year.  More importantly, if you’re getting into nursing primarily for the job security, you’re probably not going to be a very good nurse anyway.   You might want to look into truck driving or office clerking (two of the BLS’ other fastest-growing careers).  There’s more time to revel in your bonus pay while formatting spreadsheets than while saving lives.